Thursday, January 17, 2019

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Forecasting - the attempt to predict the unknowable by measuring the irrelevant (Link)
"The most important thing to know to accurately forecast future stock prices is what mood investors will be in in the future. Will people be optimistic, and willing to pay a high price for stocks? Or will they be “bummed out” and unwilling to do so? You have to know that. It’s the most important variable when predicating future stock returns. And it’s unknowable. So why do we bother with the forecasting game? Market strategists would say there is a demand for price targets and the like and that they have little choice but to cater to this demand. As for those forecasters who make especially eye-catching predictions, they know inaccurate forecasts will quickly be forgotten, while the occasionally correct one can be milked for years."

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Friday humour